The Absolute Poker Blog War, Part Two
YOU are not getting scammed at Absolute Poker, but others have and the site is not secute or trustworthy.
Guess I have to go into a long blog at why I and many other high stakes professional players are convinced that several users (most likely controlled by the same individual) have the ability to see their opponents hole cards. Sorry Justin, but I know many of the parties involved and have been involved first hand in the discovery and data processing, not just as a lurker in some message boards. But - I still love you, and you are still my favorite hippie journalist :-).
From an internet message board cause I'm lazy and don't want to write.
"Here is the backstory for the issue. Many have contributed to it.
SECURITY FLAW AT ABSOLUTE POKER?
Shortly after a recent software upgrade at Absolute Poker, several accounts with suspicious names and identical maniacal playing styles sat down at the highest-stakes games offered there, where tens of thousands of dollars change hands every hour.
Established high-stakes online players quickly noticed these "maniac" players at the tables, and lined up to get a chance to take their money.
Amazingly, the top online pros all lost money to these players, at an incredibly fast rate.
Since these pros understand poker and statistics better than you or I, they used various software tools to analyze how they could have fared better against these maniacs. They came to the same conclusion: the only possible way these maniacs could have won money is if they could see their opponent's cards.
There have been many, many people claiming "online poker is rigged" ever since it started. And these claims have always been dismissed easily and quickly by the statistics experts. This time was different. The high-stakes players posted their findings on various online poker forums, and other experts who were not directly involved quickly validated their findings. One thing stood out above all others. On the last round of betting (after all the cards had been dealt out), the suspicious accounts always raised or folded - they never simply called a bet. While some players with aggressive playing styles will often raise or fold, it is unheard of
to *never* call. "The only time it makes any sense to never call in these spots is if you know if you are ahead or behind-- in other words, if you know your opponent's hole cards," said OnlinePro1. "These maniacs made the right decision in these spots dozens of times in a row."
Others investigated these mystery players and found even more evidence:
- The maniacs had been "chip dumping", intentionally losing to other accounts. After the posts about the suspicious activity were made on the internet - all the accounts we had flagged dumped to never before heard of accounts. - Bryan
- They had finished either dead last or in first place in a series of large online tournaments, another highly improbable statistical anomaly, perhaps in an attempt to cover their tracks
- Before the software upgrade, these maniacs had been huge money losers at the low-stakes games, perhaps in another apparent attempt to cover their tracks.
To an overwhelming majority of thinking players who have reviewed this evidence, the conclusion is clear and inescapable: Some form of cheating was taking place at Absolute Poker. Now, this isn't a reason for anyone to conclude that "online poker is rigged" in general. This appears to be an isolated incident at a single online site (although highly unfortunate for the honest players involved who lost money). Absolute Poker has already suspended the accounts of these maniacs, and claims to be conducting an investigation.
In the name of fairness, and to reassure the poker community about the safety of play at Absolute Poker and at other online poker sites, we ask Absolute Poker to remiburse the players who lost money to these scam artists, to publish a full analysis of the security leaks and how they have been sealed, and to commission a third-party audit of their internal security systems."
Anyways, I personally stumbled onto this story in the beginning while watching my friends Marco and Dave play in the Absolute Poker Wednesday $1k guarantee tournament. I'm only going to bore you with one hand history:
Stage #896976330 Tourney ID 1883389 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No Limit $4500 - 2007-09-13 01:43:49 (ET)
Table: 14 (Real Money) Seat #3 is the dealer
Seat 3 - POTRIPPER ($765740 in chips)
Seat 8 - CRAZYMARCO ($214260 in chips)
POTRIPPER - Ante $450
CRAZYMARCO - Ante $450
POTRIPPER - Posts small blind $2250
CRAZYMARCO - Posts big blind $4500
*** POCKET CARDS ***
POTRIPPER - Calls $2250
CRAZYMARCO - Checks
*** FLOP *** [4h Kd Kh]
CRAZYMARCO - Checks
POTRIPPER - Bets $9000
CRAZYMARCO - Calls $9000
*** TURN *** [4h Kd Kh] [7s]
CRAZYMARCO - Checks
POTRIPPER - Bets $13500
CRAZYMARCO - All-In(Raise) $200310 to $200310
POTRIPPER - Calls $186810
*** RIVER *** [4h Kd Kh 7s] [5s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
POTRIPPER - Shows [10c 9c] (One pair, kings)
CRAZYMARCO - Shows [9h 2h] (One pair, kings)
POTRIPPER Collects $428520 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot($428520)
Board [4h Kd Kh 7s 5s]
Seat 3: POTRIPPER (dealer) (small blind) won Total ($428520) HI:($428520) with One pair, kings(ten kicker) [10c 9c - B:Kh,B:Kd,P:10c,P:9c,B:7s]
Seat 8: CRAZYMARCO (big blind) HI:lost with One pair, kings [9h 2h - B:Kh,B:Kd,P:9h,B:7s,B:5s]
Now, I'm sorry, but there is absolutely zero effing chance in any universe ever that anybody makes this call. POTRIPPER's history before this tournament was a few small stakes things during the summer with zero success. So you mean to tell me that all of a sudden, just after a software update, POTRIPPER enters the 100k guaranteed 1k buyin tournament, crushes the whole way (I have personally seen all the hand histories, not just the ones posted on message boards), never pays off with a losing hand, never calls on the river, NEVER SEES A FLOP WHEN AN OPPONENT HAS QQ+, UNLESS HE HAS BETTER, and it was all just a statistical anomoly? No effing way. No. Period.
Does this happen statistically where you can go a short period without ever being behind at the river? Yes. Where you never have a hand to see a flop when an opponent has QQ or better, even when you are seeing more than 75% of the flops yourself? Sure. But will a human being play in the manner that the suspect accounts played without the ability to see their opponents hole cards? NEVER. Think about it. No human being will ever play >75% of their hands and never call a bet on the end unless it is an all-in bet into them and they have the hand beat, ESPECIALLY in limit hold'em! No human being ever will call with ten high no draw on the turn heads up of a major tournament. No human being ever will cold-cap from the small blind and then check-fold on a 522 flop. Now, to put the icing on the cake, in that specific instance an opponent had 55! Coincidence? Statistical anomoly? That defense seems pretty weak to me.
So, you have POTRIPPER making sick ten high calls in the tournaments, you have GREYCAT making sick plays in the 150-300 and 200-400 LHE games, and you have DOUBLEDRAG making sick plays in the NLHE games, all at the same time, all for less than a week, all immediately after a software update, and then shortly after the forums went up those three accounts lose ridiculous amounts of money to accounts we've never seen or heard of doing such things as calling all-in bets on the river with four high, and we're supposed to believe that it was all just a random statistical fluke?
It just doesn't make sense. There are too many variables here for the argument of statistical fluctuation to hold any water at all that rest outside of the cards themselves. The three most significant in my humble opinion are these:
1) The timing of everything. Software update happens, immediately three separate accounts we've never heard of show up and rape the biggest limit, NL, and tournament games available. Then when discovered, those same three accounts lose large amounts of money in absurd ways to three other accounts we've never heard of, and since discovery, zero of the accounts have been back. If it was all statistical fluction and really just a fishy player, then why did that player quit instantly after discovery? Wouldn't that player be oblivious and think online poker is the easiest and just keep on playing? Why would they OBVIOUSLY chip dump their entire rolls to accounts never heard of before?
2) The human element. Nobody never calls the river. Especially if you see over 75% of the flops in limit hold'em. Anybody with any fundamental knowledge of the game knows this. Whether you're fish or shark or lucky or unlucky or on a heater or cooler, you will always call the river sometimes. For a player to have played that many hands and never had just called the river is the greatest smoking gun to me, because it makes much more sense that "Oh, that player can see holecards and thus never calls the river," than, "Oh, mr. fish has miracleously had such a string of cards that he has naturally been in situations where he never had to call on the river and the distribution led him to always raise or fold the river." O RLY. Then why on the hands where the villian here has lost the most is where he's raising the river with like six high and the opponent has something like bottom pair or ace high and calls him down light? Huh? How come the villian never raises six high when the opponent has a strong hand? HOW COME THE VILLIAN NEVER RAISES ON THE RIVER WHEN THE OPPONENT HAS A STRONG HAND, BUT IS RAISING A SIGNIFIGANT PORTION OF RIVERS? Think about that for a second if you really want to talk statistics! A player who sees >75% of the flops: Never calls on the river with a winner or loser, never raises when opponent has a strong or even medium hand on river, never makes it to the river when an opponent flops or turns a big hand, and is able to raise with bottom pair vs. ace high MULTIPLE times. Seriously? What is more statistically likely? That this just happened like magic or that the player had some outside influence?
3) Statistics themselves. You know the hypothesis that says if you take enough monkeys and teach them all how to write letters but nothing else, EVENTUALLY due to statistical fluctuation they will write works of shakespeare. Eventually a monkey will come up with "Though this be madness, yet there is method in 't." As a small exercise, lets give you a number of the odds of a monkey writing random letters coming up with that sentence, and I'm not even going to include punctuation or spaces or caps in the numbers. Each letter is a random one in 26, and the monkey must precicely pick 'T' first (1/26) followed by 'h' (1/26.. we're already at a 1/676 chance that monkey writing random letters will write 'Th'), followed by 'o'... etc. Final numbers? 1/308,915,776 just for the monkey to come up with the word "Though". That is one in three hundred million that the monkey comes up with "Though." We're not even getting into well known works like "Oh Romeo", which bring that number up to 1/8,031,810,176, or one in eight billion. For a monkey writing random letters to randomly write "Oh Romeo." Now, Poker Stars just completed their billionth hand, and I'm not sure the number of hands played on the internet in history, but on Absolute Poker in one week three separate monkeys wrote the book on how to play poker perfectly in three separate games: Limit Hold'em, No-Limit Hold'em, and Tournament Hold'em. So if you want to tell me that it was all a statistical fluke, your arguement goes right out the window, because it is statistically much more likely for these players to have been cheating rather than monkeys writing Shakespeare.
Put all these together and it is the opionion of myself and many other well respected high stakes professionals, both live and online, that without a doubt player(s) were cheating on Absolute Poker.
Well, now what? Number one, don't play at absolute poker. It is obvious that the site got cracked in one way or another. Perhaps it was internally, perhaps it was externally. Number two, most of us, myself included, don't need to worry about this too much. Anybody who has the ability to see other's hole cards are going to use it at the highest level, not the games that most of us play. Number three, educate yourself. Check out the forums that have ALL the data. Evaluate the data for yourself. This is not some "internet poker is rigged" conspiricy theory. There is hard data and evidence backing this up and the people bringing the accusations forward are very well respected individuals.
I have continued to play at Full Tilt and Stars with complete confidence.
Lastly, I can understand why Absolute hasn't done anything about this. They are truly in a crappy spot. They can deny, deny, deny, and let these blogs and forums go up with only public opinion going against them. Meanwhile, they can freeze the accounts in question (done), and try and sweep everything under the rug. It would be nice if they returned the money won by the cheaters, but I could see them not doing that simply to avoid admission of guilt. This is the best case for them because the general poker public is never going to know about this story and won't really care. They'll continue playing online at Absolute Poker like nothing happened. If it becomes public that Absolute has in fact been cracked, then the site is going down and they're going to lose a lot of revenue because nobody is ever going to trust their security.
Ok... that is all.
Peace and good luck,
Devo
Can't a guy get a delivery?
Online tournaments require delivery drivers. Attention all members of the delivery industry: check out sites such as mapquest.com or google maps. They're helpful for getting your product to your customers' house.
Twice today Jon Eaton and I tried to order delivery. Once quiznos, once papa johns. Twice we gave very specific directions (Jon lives just off the south strip). Twice drivers called us lost. Twice said drivers didn't even know where they were. One said he was on the blvd but didn't know if he was heading north or south. I mean seriously. If you are on the south strip by the South Pointe, it's not too difficult to spot the big hotels to the north and say, oh, that's north. I mean seriously.
So, we finally went out and got some fast food and are currently in grindin online tourneys mode. I was 4th in chips in the WCOOP stud event today after the first level, and have since leveled out a bit.
Yesterday we came really close in a couple. I took 9th in a $69+6 FTP freezeout and cashed in the $215 second chance. I had a ton of chips in both at times and just fizzled at the end. My personal favorite was 4 betting all-in pre-flop w/J3o on the bubble in the second chance and getting called by aces. The guy was really loose aggressive and his timing worked perfectly as he had already re-raised me twice.
Ok.. hopefully i'll have something to write about tonight, and i'm gonna go back to crushing stud.
Peace and good luck,
Devo
Monday, 24th of September 2007 06:42 PM
Wow. I'm on life tilt right now. Today I played 8 tournaments. Today I was chip leader in 3 of them, twice deep. Today I was in the top ten in three others. In one other I got 2 outed for a top ten stack, and the last one I tilted off my stack right after bustoing from the WCOOP stud event.
I cashed in zero of them.
I got it in good every time but one.
I'm going to the lake tomorrow.
Devo
The Lock-In
Online tournamentsssssssss So, with the WCOOP going on at stars, I have been playing a ton of online tournaments the last sevaral days.
And generally getting my nuts kicked in.
I've finished in the 10% just outside of the money in many of these yet only cashed once since my 2nd on saturday. Pretty much every conceivable bad beat for big stacks have happened. My personal favorite was in the razz tourney today with an average stack but playing high we cap it on 3rd three ways with my (A2)3 vs an 8 and a 5. I go K, K and have to muck on 5th for 1500 with 15k in the pot and about 200 left, money at 117ish. Thats kinda like getting AA and having 3 way action on a 89TJ with a 3 card flush board. I finished 163rd having not made a hand in three hours straight.
I played a really weird hand vs. Danny Wong yesterday in the 200r misclickament. He opened in the hi-jack (2 off the button) to 2400 in the 400-800/75 level. I had 36k to start the hand and he had me covered. I called with A J . Flop A K J . He bet 4666 and I called behind. I'm not raising here because i'm not going to get value from something I'm beating except maybe KJ and will put myself in a tough spot if he 3 bets AI. He could have some sort of KQ type hand, but again, I'm actually a dog to that hand on the flop. Much more value in just calling because it disguises the strength of my hand and I feel is the best mix of value/defense. The turn was a 9 . He checked, I had 25k in stack, and had to decide between checking or betting 8kish. I decided to check here because Danny is capable of CRAI here with anything and if that happens then I hate my hand and once again am in a crappy spot. Against this opponent who is both thinking and creative you have to mix it up a bit, and I felt that checking was right here with bet/call being a close second. The river was the 5 , he checked again, and now it was time to go to value town/induce a bluff. I bet 4420. This looks like a thin value bet or a busted draw bet based on the way that I played my hand. Plan A was to simply get paid off by Ax which made a bunch of sense for Danny's range, and possibly get him to interpret my bet as weak and then try and take the pot off me. He put me all in, 21k to call with about 46k in the pot. I time-banked the max and finally called simply because nothing really made sense there except something like A5, air, or QT. He had AK, and I was busted 360thish just outside of the money at 270th. Frustrating, annoying, whatever. There really is no way to avoid going broke in that hand unless I bet/fold the turn, but that's pretty weak against an aggressive opponent.
So, meh. AYA. Tired of losing 2k a day.
Tomorrows WCOOP is a $200 HORSE and a $500 PLHE. Donkaments, USC football, and throwing of wireless mice... all in a good Saturday.
Peace and good luck,
Devo
Borgata Poker Open WTP $9800+200 NLHE Day Two My Demise
Frustrated. Well, I'm pretty frustrated, mostly because I just had such a rough go at EVERYTHING today. I knew I needed to do some work as average was over 50k and I only had 18k. That help came on the second hand however when I got it all in pf with AKo and won a race against Eric Cajelas' QQ. Unfortunately, I couldn't get any momentum going at all. I had to pull out some creative tricks to even keep afloat, my personal favorite being a sick all-in go and go with the ol J3off.
So, at the start of the 600-1200/100 level I had 24,500 just hating life. Fourth hand? AA. Open to 3k, player to my left makes it 15k, Bryan Sumner tanks and I'm pretty sure he's re-raising, and then he suddenly shakes his head and mucks. I obv shove my last 9k in or whatever, he calls, and AA good over 33. Jxx flop, Sumner had JJ.
I pick up some blinds, pick up a small pot, and am around 58k when I start this hand. I open KK from the hijack to 4500 for two reasons. One, I didn't want to screw around with the hand. I wanted to get it in and get it in now. I had been very active and my bigger than standard raise would look weak increasing my chances that I get re-raised (2nd reason). Sumner is in the BB and thinks for a bit, thinks about what I'm up to, and calls. Flop J 7 6 . He checks, I bet 8k, he thinks for a bit and is clearly thinking about raising or calling. Period. He finally just calls. Turn the ever lovely jack of something. Obv I hate that card, but his range is wide and doesn't necessairly include a jack. He checks, I bet 16k, leaving myself with 26k.
Some people think I should have checked turn, others think my bet is perfect. By checking, I'm keeping the pot small, avoiding getting put all in and to a decision, and giving a free card.
By betting 16k, I am basically committing myself to the pot. There's 26.5+16k in the pot on the turn. If he shoves, he's putting in 42k, so it's costing me 26k for a shot at 84k, just over the 3-1 that I estiamted. It's highly unlikely anybody that bets 16 of 42k on the turn with that scary of a board is ever folding to a shove.
Sumner shoved.
Now I really hated life. His timing was perfect on all streets, he had a tight image, the bet sizes made sense, and everything pointed to the fact that he is really never bluffing there. But, he realized all this too, and furthermore realized that I realized all this, and probably even went to the level that I was thinking on when I bet the 16k the likelihood of me holding an overpair and vomiting when getting shoved on. Then, to cap it all off, he had to deduce that i was good enough to lay down AA, KK, or QQ with such a short stack getting 3:1.
The sick part is that Jx, 77, 88, and JJ are also in my range there.
So, all those things to happen. Materially he had to hit a J or 8 to win the pot, cause a 7 or 6 is not scaring me off the pot. Then, after all that, he has to execute in such an impossible spot, and then I had to make a monster laydown. I finally mucked deducing that there was absolutely no way he's bluffing more than 10% of the time, and since that's all I'm beating at this point, I can't call for 3:1 even with tournament value considered cause I can still play with 26k.
He pretty much owned my face.
So, puke. I got the rest of it in bad with AQ vs. a shorty awho's range was AT-AK and QQ or less, and he properly had AK. No good for me, all in on the BB T9 v AQ no good.
Frustrated. 24 straight no cashes right now.
I'm playing so well right now. I'm seeing spots and making plays that I've never seen before. I've learned a ton from playing a ton online and hanging with these online studs about accumulating chips and I truly believe it's what even got me this far.
Course, one of those spots yesterday cost me the maximum, but that was pretty unlucky, and the JJ v QQ in the 5k was pretty unlucky with the read a little off - but QQ didn't make sense.
Anyways, last fall I had a crappy streak too, and knew I was on my game, and predicted a win within two months, and that happened. Long dead steak, predicted big cash, happened. Long dead streak, here I am once again, I'm on my game... something big's coming by the end of the year.
Peace and good luck,
Devo
Borgata Poker Open WTP $9800+200 NLHE Day One
Ugggggh... So, ended the day with 18,150 from the 30k starting stack, and about 40k off what I really should have. I was card dead for most of the day which was quite depressing considering that I had an excellent table draw.
I won zero pots until the third level, but was so card dead that I only lost 2k off my starting stack at 25-50 and 50-100 for 75mins each. Sick, eh? Won a decent pot there to end level 3 at 33,500. I had an excellent level 4 as I found some good spots to pick up pots and made a couple of value hands. I ended at 42k. Level 5 wasn't very exciting and I ended at 45k.
We went on dinner and I came back with a plan to continue nitting it up. On the second hand called the button's shove for 6100 from the SB with AJ and lost to A5s. Then two hands later we played an odd hand and I'm very proud of how I played it. Ted Forrest's blind, but he's not there, 200-400/50. MP2 limps (LOL), I limp T 7 in the cutoff, tight old nice guy limps button, tight old grumpy guy completes SB and we see a flop of Q T 9 . Check, check, I probe for 1300, TNOG calls button, SB folds, MP2 calls. Done, right?
Until the MP2 donked the turn for 1500! Like a tunnel in front of me I saw the light and realized that I was going to win this spot.
For the record, these are the spots that separate the best tournament playrs from the good ones. It's all about seeing and executing at these crux spots where you can earn and manufacture chips with little risk to your stack.
In this hand, it was impossible for me to play risk free, but I set myself up to win the pot in the most efficient way possible. I knew MP2 didn't have anything on the 6 turn. I was 80% TNOG on a draw and 20% on a pair. I wanted to charge the combo draw to draw, fold the single draw (naked FD or SD), and fold the pairs. Furthermore I didn't want to commit myself too much because I was going to have to fire another barrel on the river and wanted to make sure it was cheap. I raised it to 5k, and the TNOG tanked. I really thought he was folding at this point. There's about 12k in the pot and it's costing the guy 5k (about 1/5th of stack) plus he had a guy acting behind.
Well, the guy mucked out of turn! Thanks buddy. I already knew you were folding but you didn't have to let the TNOG know that!
TNOG asks the dealer to spread the pot, thinks a while, and finally calls.
Now, this tells me that he hs some combo draw. Flush/pair, flush/straight, straight/pair. I'm hoping for a brick, 9. Sweet. Good card for my hand. I bet 6125 just in case I'm wrong or he has a QJ/TJ type hand, but I'm really expecting a fold, and then he says, call. A 9 . That draw.
It was really an unfortunate card because not only did I lose the 17k pot but I lost an additional 6500 on top of it because of the "safe" river. I obv fire all aces and nines on river, but obv check-fold any scare card.
After that I couldn't get anything going. I dwindled down to where I am at now with 18,500. The good news is the day is gonna be new and we're playing 300-600/75 so I got some room.
Quote of the Day comes to you today curtosey of Maria Ho who was commentating on older woman. "I saw this lady once that was like 48 and the had like, a better body than me! I'm like, what a bitch, ya know?"
Well done M. Thank you for bringing back QOTD.
In other news, my cell phone has been charging all day in Joe Cassidy's room right now so if you've been trying to get a hold of me or expecting contact from me... sorry!
Peace and good luck,
Devo
Borgata Poker Open $5k+200
I'm out, and thoroughly confused. ARRRRRRRRRRRRGH. I'm so frustrated right now.
I started today feeling fresh and fired up and found myself at the sweetest table draw ever for a $5k event. There was only one trouble spot on the table, two weak tighties to my left, two donkeys to my right, one to the left, and two average players across the table. In the first two levels (25-50 and 50-100, 15k starting stack) I chipped up easily to 21k, and then found myself at 24k after the 75-150 and 100-200 level.
Come back from break expecting to play 100-200/25, and much to my surprise we're playing 200-400/25. What the ?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? Are you kidding me? I've heard nothing but good things about the structures here, but that is just ridiculous. So, instead of having a huge stack with all the time in the world, I instead only have 25m's, good for a medium-large stack.
First hand back I found KK and lost 7k to JT on a J8x flop vs. a shorty. About one orbit later the player who had the JT opens UTG+2 for 1200. Straight-forward donkey (this has been established as fact. Means he plays straight forward with big hands, calls off way too lightly in weird spots, and makes pointless bluffs.) calls next in, one fold, weak tight donkey calls, fold, and it's on me on the button, I have JJ. Calling here sucks, shipping it sucks, so I make it 4k, enough to get the job done without exposing myself too much.
Initial raiser folds, donkey #1 TANKS. And TAAAAANKS. He's not thinking about raising whatsoever. I'm giving him 88-TT, AQ/AJ. For the record, we've already seen him numerous times calling raises with Ax and other crappy hands, and even calling some re-raises with those crappy hands. I am not worried about this player or the next one in any way at all. I would still prefer to take down the 4450 without a fight, but I am extremely confident in my hand. He finally calls and the other donkey folds.
Flop 9 6 6 . Perfect, hope he doesn't have 99, but at this point I have committed myself to this hand. There's 11,250 in the pot, I have 11,800 in my stack. He checks, and clearly is still in the same demeanor. If he has 99 or 66 so be it, but I'm not getting off this hand ever.
Bet small or ship it in? Well, since I'm never folding this hand, I might as well try and get some value and give him a chance to do something stupid. I bet 6k, and he TAAAAANKS again. Seriously tanks. Is not thinking of putting me in. Hates his spot. I can now rule out all the Ax hands, even the A x cause he would visibly like the flop much more and would have probably put me in already. I'm giving him TT, 88, 77 in that order. Possible JJ, but that's pretty unlikely, AA, KK, or QQ he's already shipped it on me (he had a little more than 30k at the start of the hand), but this guy is goofy enough that I can't totally rule out A9 or some small pair or complete air. The point is that I am begging for a call now. I know I have the best hand. I am shipping it on any turn period unless I pick up some visible tell on a "scare" card in his range, but it's going to have to be pretty serious for me to ever fold this hand. It seriously took him 90 seconds to call the flop. Nobody hollywoods that long, and I know that he wasn't even thinking about raising ever.
Turn is a K , and he checks again. I know he doesn't like that card. I don't like that card at all and it's not because I think I'm beat now - I would have bet my bankroll that he didn't have A K or any other Kx hand. I think it might scare him off of his medium pair. I ship it, and he really tanks. It's 6850 to call and there's 23250 in the middle already - so he's getting fantastic pot odds, and it's exactly how I wanted it. He called after about two minutes, I was sure my jacks were the nuts and tabled them quickly.
He had queens.
Queens? Huh? WTF? Oh, my, God. He had the only even remotely possible hand that beat me and I had the only even remotely possible hand that he could beat. There is a huge gap here between JJ and TT for my holdings. I'm only playing AA-JJ that way, period. I'm calling in position with TT>, AK, etc. Plus, while I thought he'd never play QQ that way, it's clearly the absolute top of his range - he's never playing AA, KK, or AK like that ever. Ever. And I'm thoroughly shocked that he played QQ that way.
Think about it for a second - when have you ever seen a loose donkey cold call a raise with QQ and they're not trying to be funky? I've never seen it! They usually make a sizeable re-raise to "protect" their queens from letting in Ax or Kx. It's so standard that it didn't even cross my mind the remote possibility that he had queens.
Looking back on the hand, I can understand what's going on in his mind. He's gotta hate his life vs. my range too. My play on all streets was super strong, and he's really only beating JJ. Furthermore, my image was super-nit tight, and this was the most action I had put into a pot in 4.5 hours.
Arrrrrgh.
There wasn't a dang thing I could do there.
This hand fits nicely in the category of Wednesday's 2500 hands. I recieved some e-mails questioning why I lost so many chips with one and two pair hands, and in this hand I busted with a one pair hand. The point of poker is not the rank of your hand but the rank of your hand vs. their hand. In the hands on Wednesday I had the effective 3rd nuts with AA and the effective 2nd nuts with the AT. In this particular hand I felt like I had the effective nuts and am always willing to play a big pot when I feel that I have the effective nuts. You establish the effective nuts based on their range, which narrows with each action taken. If their range doesn't include any hand that beats you, then you have the effective nuts. One hand that beats you and several others that don't? Second nuts. Follow?
So, in this hand I felt that I had the effective nuts, but was obviously wrong. I had the effective second nuts, and it really doesn't matter if I even put QQ into his possible range, because the hand still plays out the same. I can't quit on the turn with so much invested and his range sitting at QQ or less w/o 99 or 66. I have to ship it there.
Oh well. I am very happy with my play today in all aspects and am super excited for the 10k on Sunday. I'm playing well and expect big things to happen very soon.
I saw a ruling today that drove me nuts. Rule # 15 of the Borgata's official rules talks about a player calling a bet when unsure of the bet amount being able to forfeit the amount put into the pot and fold or call the rest. For example, guy opens in the 10 seat for 200, guy in the one seat throws out 50 at the 25-50 level. Seat one can either fold and leave the 50 or throw out 150 more and call.
So, come river in this particular hand, player A in 8 seat bets two purples and two blacks, 1200. Player B in 1 seat throws out 700. Dealer does not announce bet sizes, doesn't confirm pot correctness, and just says "call." Player A tables his hand and it's good, player B asks if he has to call the additional 500. I LOLed - totally thought he was kidding. He finally puts the 500 in before a floor can be called, but when the floor got there he said that the player did not have to call the additional 500.
Yes, I understand that this is how the rule reads, but there has to be some sort of ammendment to the rule and the dealers need to be more attentive to making sure the pot is correct. Think about all the ways this can be exploited! Make a thin call for a few big chips less than what he bet. When ever does a player with a weak hand question whether the call is complete or not? NEVER! I accidentally called a guy today for 750 when the actual bet was 1250 (I was calling 1250 or any other number also FWIW) and his cards instantly hit the muck when I threw chips into the pot. After his cards were in the muck, THEN the dealer told me that it was 1250 and I owed 500 more! LOLOL!
So, if you're the bettor, make sure PERIOD before you table your hand or say anything. I can see this angle getting super blatantly abused.
The point is that there should not be rules that protect people from their own mistakes (ie putting chips in the pot when they don't even know the bet size), enables huge angles to be shot, and forces players to go out of their way to protect themselves from a stupid rule.
Peace and good luck,
Devo
Borgata Poker Open $2500+150 NLHE
75 minutes of "fun" Tired of reading about lions, tigers, and bears? Ready for some poker content?
Too bad! I only got 75 minutes of play today so you only get to hear about the two big hands that I played.
I had heard about the legendary structures at the Borgata, and from what I actually got to see I was impressed. 12k in starting chips blinds 25-50 with hour levels. About 45 minutes in my stack had dwindled to 11,100. My image had to be in the loose/passive neighborhood because I had been seeing a ton of flops but not putting in much action post flop. Furthermore, twice I had made bets post flop, and twice I had folded to a raise. So.
Young active player that I've never seen before limps UTG. I find AA in MP and make it 175, all fold except UTG. Flop T 4 2. Now, this is one of those boards that you're usually miles ahead but you're in serious trouble if you're behind. Furthermore, if you're ahead, it's not too likely that you're gonna get action from something that you're crushing unless your opponent is doing something goofy UTG (ie big pair). My opponent leads for 300 on the flop. Normally it's a raise here, but since we're playing so deep, the only way I'm going to win the maximum is by letting my opponent bang away with one pair. Furthermore, by just calling I am protecting myself from a big hand. I call, and at this point I still have no read on my opponent.
Turn: 8. He checks. OK, good - he has something in the JT range. Can't let him have a freebie, I bet 700. He makes it 2100.
Now, let me comment on the turn check-raise. This play has caught on a lot lately, and it's been working, but I think that it is not a very good play, because it just screams strength - much like the limp-re-raise UTG pre-flop. My cards were on their way to the muck, esp since we were so deep, but... arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrghh. This board is so freakin dry and his range is so wide, ugh. He doesn't have TT. 22, 44, 88, possible. T8? Ehh, maybe, but highly unlikely. T4, T2, 42, no way. Air? Possible. JJ-AA, 99, 77-33? Also very possible. So, his CR was to 2100, I wanted to muck so bad, but everything was there that kept my cards from instantly hitting the muck - super dry board, young/aggressive kid, and the simple lack of a read vs. an unknown opponent. I called, planning on re-evaluating on the river.
River Qx, and he bet 2600. Now I really wanted to puke, cause that's either the perfect value bet or an obvious blocking bet. I have 8700 in my stack at this point, and he's leaving himself enough room to get away from his hand if I shove, or is it a sick value bet? Maybe it's a bluff induction bet? I DON'T KNOW! As much as I wanted to throw my cards into the muck, I decided there were just too many other hands that I beat as I was only really afraid of 22 and 44. I called, he showed me 44, and I wasn't sure how to feel about the hand. I don't know if I lost the maximum or the minimum. I don't ever see myself going bust there, but I think laying it down at any point is really weak also, especially since my range in his eyes is so wide also. I could just as easily have JT in the spot, and he could honestly think that he's going to value town with some goofiyly played KK. For the record, that's been another hip trend lately, the ol slow-play big pairs early, and I think that's terrible, but enough people have been doing it lately that it's always gotta be taken into consideration, especially early when so many unknowns are still in.
Anyways, fast forward 30 minutes, we're now playing 50-100, and I won a small pot to bring my stack back to 7k. This hand was also much of the same lines of thought, but I had a little bit more history on my opponent. I limp ATo in position and we see a flop four ways - both blinds and the guy to my right. Flop A Q T . BB bets 300, guy to my right makes it 1100, and I'm stumped once again. I can't really shove for 7k, I can't really raise to 3k and then fold to a push, I hate just calling, and I hate folding. OK... range thinking time. This guy has been playing pretty straight forward, very classic amateur player style. Underbet weak hands, overbet weak hands on drawy boards, and slow play monsters. I saw all three of these go to showdown in three different hands. Underbet AA on flop and turn and checked river hu on KTx, 8, x board. Called flop with a gutterball, caught it on turn, just called again on turn instead of raising, and then I saw him bet a top pair hard on a sd/fd flop. So, I decided to just call and evaluate on the turn cause he could easily have KJ and be protecting himself from the clubs, but he also could just as easily have AJ or less, QT, or KQ/QJ . Hell, you also get to throw in the 10% goofball factor. Again, I know he doesn't have AQ, AA, QQ, TT, cause he's the type of player that will raise those hands pre-flop. Knowing that, I've basically got the second nuts. I want to see a turn and see what he does with it.
Turns a total brick and he FIRES 3k. Now I'm almost positive that he's got QT and is putting me on Ax or a drawy type hand. I pause long enough to make sure that he'll call my additional 3k shove, stick it in, and I think I'm a genius after he doesn't instantly call. Then he finally does call after about four seconds and shows me K J , I feel slowrolled, and wander back up here to write. I'll have to chew on these hands a bit. The sick part is that my instinct was to toss it both times but couldn't find the laydown. Anyways, tomorrow is the $500+60.
Peace and good luck,
Devo
Fantastic First Few in Washington!
Parlor Games and Epic Rides
Whoo, wheeee! What a sweet couple days it’s been already as I’ve hung out in the staging area that is Casa de Fuller north of Seattle by about an hour. I arrived Thursday night and we just chilled at the house. Friday I got to experience firsthand Rick’s flying lesson progress as I sat in the back seat of a Cessna 172 as we did touch and go’s at Payne Field (just south of the Boeing Plant, the biggest building in the world) and short and soft field takeoffs and landings at Harvey field. I’ve been fixin to take some flying lessons for a long time and was planning on starting this fall. I’m even more excited about it now! From there we went to dinner and then to a saloon. Angie met us there and Rick and I had the parlor games world series to decide who was paying for dinner. We decided on a game of pool, foosball, and original golden tee.
Pool: I break and sink + 1, Rick’s turn. I’m solid’s, he just saw me break a solid and sink a solid. He says, “I’m gonna try a combo.” I’m looking at his setup and say, “What to what?!?” He says, “The one to the roeifjo!” I was like, okay… He decided for some reason to try a combo on his first shot into my solid balls. Unfortunately he missed, but I still had ball in hand. He only got to stand at the table once more.
AHHHHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAH. I’m riding with Rick right now down to Angie’s place and just said out loud, “Wow. I didn’t realize how fast that game was last night. You only got two shots.” He responds, “No, I only got two real shots. I sank two balls on my first shot, and then gave you ball in hand on the second.”
“Wait, so you actually sunk two stripes BEFORE you went for my solids?!?” Hehehehe.
From there it was on to foosball, where he handed my ass to me on a plate. I got one lucky fluke goal and he smoked me 10-1.
Then, Golden Tee. If any of you have ever played with me you know I am a huge favorite in the best of three bet, and I even told Rick that I’m really good at Golden Tee, but this was the classic original I’ve never played it version. I beat him by something like eighteen strokes. He went on Golden Tee tilt at the end and screwed up some of my strokes and a bunch of his. It was amusing.
From there we went to see Superbad (again for me… first time since high school I saw a movie twice in the theatre, first time since Jurassic Park in the same week). So effing hilarious. Go. Now. Don’t bring anybody under 18.
Then we went to Rick’s uncle’s bar, and there should have been a sign on the door that said, “If this is your first time here you are most likely going to be the best looking person in the joint.” But, they had shuffleboard, and WOW this board looked pretty. Shiny black top on the wood buffed to a high gloss, very clean board, no warping, damage, or whatever.
But, I felt like I was being punk’d. The pucks just did things that they’re not supposed to do. Flying down the board they’d stop right in the middle when they should have went off the back. No patterns, no consistency, nothing. Frustrating. He got me back for the money lost on who was paying for dinner.
Back home, sleep, and I wake up to “Shh, I’m gonna put my nuts on Devo’s forehead.” If I was smarter I would have waited to acknowledge my consciousness until he was closer and naked and made sure he was conditioned to never think such thoughts again as I suddenly stretched with a clenched fist, but in stead I just opened my eyes to figure out what was going on. He was caught, I was confused. He said, “Wake up Devo. We have a big day ahead of us.”
We went on the sweetest bike ride I have ever been on. We went up the 5, west on some highway onto some island with some island on it (one of three in the world I heard… pretty cool!). An island on an island. Ocean, Island, Lake, Island. Cool. Past that that through Deception Pass, absolutely gorgeous, and all the way across Whidby Island where my good friend Lars grew up. From there to some ferry across the sound and back to Fuller’s house. Absolutely fantastic day.
Tonight a bunch of us are going out somewhere in Seattle and then hopping on a plane early in the morning to go hunt some bear!
Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket
Peace and good luck,
Devo
|
