Allen Kessler's blog and my Response
Thought this would be good material...How badly did I play vs Barry Greenstein today?
Here is the scenario. We are playing the $2500 no limit tourney at Bellagio. I started with $5,000 chips and by the end of level 3 had accumulated over $25,000 in chips without ever risking a large portion of my stack, We get to the 300 600 level and I am moved to a new table. This table is very agressive with raising and often reraising nearly every hand preflop. My cards go totally cold and I barely get to play a hand. When we get to 400 800, I still have about 20k but every time I enter a pot I get raised or reraised and I don't collect 1 chip that level. When we start the 600 1200 level I am down to about 11k. Each orbit costs about 3000, so I dont have much time left. I push all in once for about 10k which gets me another orbit when no one calls. I fold one round of hands and now I am getting desperate with about 9000 left after I post my Big Blind. Barry Greenstein had just lost a huge pot hen he raised on the button and defended an all in with Q 10 suited and had about 12k left. I knew he would be pushing all in soon as well. As I expected, he looks down under the gun, and counts out a raise; he hesitates when he realizes that if he raises he won't leave enough behind to post his Big Blind and still have any fold equity, so he pushes all in for his remaining 12K. Everyone folds around to me in the Small Blind. I don't think Barry is too strong, because a strong hand he would probably raise about 1/4 of his chips and try to trap someone for the rest of his chips after the flop. I look down at AJ suited (the best hand ive seen since the 300 600 level) and decide this may be my last chance to get money into a pot with any equity at all. I reluctantly push all my chips forward and hope the Big Blind doesnt pick up a monster so that I can go against Barry heads up. The Big Blind folds and Barry turns over 99 and wins the race and I am out of the tournament.
Barry insulted my play during the dinner break, stating that against his early push, I am a 2-1 dog at best and that I had 4 or 5 free hands coming where I would have fold equity with a 10 Big Blind push. The problem was that in the last 2 levels, I was only in a spot to push an unraised pot once or twice; and the way the table was playing, I may not have had the chance to get my money in a pot with any fold equity at all. By the time I would post my next blinds I would be down to just over 5000 in chips with literally no fold equity and praying for a race opportunity.
I reasoned that the AJ suited may be my best opportunity to get some chips in this tourney and took my chances there. How bad was this play?
- Allen Kessler
my response:
excellent play.
you are hereby banned from ever again criticizing my play with AT busting you out of the 25k.
in your spot I snap call fist pump am thrilled to get it in against barry's range.
His shove range should really be top 30%, as I thought yours should have been in the 25k and thus snap called with ATo. Thus, your call is +ev regardless.
Barry has 10BB's and 4m's, and after two hands will be down to 8bb's and 3.3 m's His range is huge here and AJs is so far ahead.
Even if you give Barry as slim a range at top 20%, here's how the numbers work out:
1,527,375,168 games 0.035 secs 43,639,290,514 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.737% 39.77% 02.97% 607421024 45335254.00
{ 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 57.263% 54.29% 02.97% 829283636 45335254.00
{ AJs }
at top 30%:
2,315,035,008 games 0.001 secs 2,315,035,008,000 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.486% 37.08% 02.40% 858436068 55673164.00
{ 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 60.514% 58.11% 02.40% 1345252612 55673164.00
{ AJs }
And, just for fun, lets give barry a top 10% range, which is obv waaaaay too tight, but just for argument's sake.
Your stack: 9k after BB, now you're in SB, thus stack = 8300 (assuming 600-1200/100), and you have to call off that 8300 for a shot at 8900+8900+1200(BB)+900(antes) 19900. Thus, with your 8300 you only need a 42% equity to make calling correct there, 40% if it's 6-12/2.
Therefore, you're correct to call even if barry's shoving range there is only top 7.5%:
547,937,280 games 0.005 secs 109,587,456,000 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.067% 55.37% 02.69% 303413168 14755124.00 { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 41.933% 39.24% 02.69% 215013864 14755124.00 { AJs }
---
760,262,976 games 0.005 secs 152,052,595,200 games/sec
Can't believe did all that. I am now going to post this in a blog.
Devo
posted by Devo @ 5:03 AM
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