Commerce Casino LAPC, Event 8, $500+40 NLHE - My End of the LAPC
I had to back up off of it and sit my cup down... Well, as Jim and I left the commerce at 4am, both sick of running bad, Jim wanting to get back soon, and I just sick of running bad, we decided to perform our one super spontaneous act per month and left for Vegas. Immediately. Now, that is not nearly as cool as living in Los Angeles and going to Vegas at 4am on a spur of the moment, but leaving tonight was never in the plans. Basically, I've been running that "I can't win" run bad and am down to $3200 cash, and Jim hates limit, and I dearly miss Lara, so we're outta here.Tonight was the $500+40 NLHE event number eight. I drew table eight again, found myself sitting with Dennis Waterman again, and this time in Max Pescatori's old seat is my buddy Theo Tran. Tourney kinda went like this. First 76 minutes Devo wins zero chips. With four minutes left in the 25-50 level, I'm down to 1075. Theo, who already has a huge stack, opens for 150 UTG. Folds to me in the hijack, I look down at ATo, and I go all-in with normal timing. Theo calls with QQ, I spike an ace on the river, and I'm doubled up. I felt pretty bad about sucking out on Theo. He called it a bad play, said I need to win that hand 4/5 times pre for it to be profitable, I agreed and felt badder. I think I was just on tilt from the last week of frustrations, thought this ATo was gold, knew Theo's range was wide, blinds were doubling soon, and shoved. Actually though, as I thought the math problem out more, it's really not that bad. It all depends on what Theo's range of calling hands is. I estimate 30-35%. My stack was that perfect amount where re-raising was the same as shoving, so shoving made sense and wasn't a "weak" overbet. So, assuming the four players remaining don't pick up a hand (but, this has to be taken into consideration. Lets say AK, AQs, AA-TT for the sake of arugement. Number of those possible hands divided by total possible hands multiplied by four.) Anyways, assuming just Theo and I, I risk 1075 to win 225 and am successful 65-70% of the time. If called, it's safe to assume I'm a 3-1 dog (again, running the numbers on pokerstove will lead to more accurate numbers, plugging in Theo's calling hand range vs. ATo). So, 3/4 of 30-35% of the time I lose 1075, and 1/4 of those times I win 1250. So, just off the top of my head, lets take the 35% calling range number. 65% @ 225 = 146.25 equity, 8.75% @ 1250 = 109.375 equity, and 26.25% @ (1075) = (282.1875) losing equity, for a total equity of negative 26.5625 chips every time I make this play. So, yep. Losing play. Dumbass Devo. Now, there is metagame value in the fact that I hate sitting on a short stack, I need to let Theo know that I can come over the top of him at any time, and if I bust, I can go crush some cash games downstairs.
But I didn't bust. Fast forward to after break, blinds 75-150. I have about 3400 at this point. UTG mini-raises to 300. I really didn't think he had much of a hand. I asked how much he had left, and he said 1200 more. I had AQo and thought I was a race at worst. I re-raised to 700, first time outside of the AT all in that I had re-raised. Folded back to him, he called. Flop QQ2 rainbow. He checked. I quickly checked behind. Turn 3. He checked, and I insta-fired 800 into the pot, exactly what he had left. He really wanted to fold. He was about to throw his cards away when I came up with a way to talk him into calling. I stared at him. Dead in the eyes. He realized this, looked away, thought, pulled his cards back, and threw in the rest of his chips with 88. Eight-ball on the river and I'm down to 1600. Missed a few hands, shoved with A3 on the button, lost, and was on my way downstairs before the start of level four.
I sat in a 40-80 game while waiting for a 60 seat. I did not play a hand for my first four orbits. Literally not one. I didn't even see a flop from the big blind. I finally limped with 7 7 , flopped a set, got bet into by a flush draw, I raised, folded back to him heads up he three bet, I called, he bet brick turn, I raised, he called, and then check-raised me when he completed flush on river. I won one pot containing 7 total big bets in a three hour session, losing $1400.
Around this time my friends were ready to go do something, and boy was I ready as well. We went to a fabulious dinner at a nice restaurant. I had literally the best wine that I have ever had there. It was a 2003 Summerland Pinot Noir, out of Santa Barbara. I'm going to buy a case immediately when I get home. It was incredible. Went back to the Commerce, hung out in the karaeoke bar, I sang "Under the Bridge", "Breakfast at Tiffany's", and "Gin n Juice". Believe it or not, I nailed them all. From there we wandered upstairs to start a magoo fest in a 1-2 NL $40 max buy-in game. I lost like $300 in that game. I lose 4 of 5 races all-in pre-flop, but I did snap JJ w/ T2o on a AJ6 flop and 77 and 97 with T4o on an 883 flop (that was sexy... came AA). We had a 72o side-bet where if you could successfully win a pot with the hand, pre-flop or not, then everybody on the table owed you $10. Pretty good value with only $40 in your stack and eight of us on the table.
So, I'm on the way back, $5200 short of what I came to town with. I did make $1100 online during this week and spent $3570 on busted tournaments, so I cannot complain too much. It really could be so much worse. Lynette Chan and I had a conversation about this tonight. We both won pretty decently last month, but just feel so emotionally defeated. I'm not sure how her December was, but I know mine is still having a residual impact on my psyche. It's so weird how when you are so card dead for so long, and then get cracked so many times, and then go O-fer so many tournaments without even cashing, and leave stuck when the over/under on how much I was going to win was set at $9k, I feel defeated. It's so weird though with that nature of this game. Make a little over $80/hour last month and I'm frustrated about it. So sick. I will take $80/hour for the rest of my life If I can make it happen.
The gentleman that I wrote about yesterday that re-raised all-in with KT vs. my 2 3 over the short stack walks up to me today and says, "Thanks for calling me retarded. I appreciate it." Oops. Ryan, I don't think you're retarded. I apologize if you took offense to what I said, it had nothing to do with anything personal. I do however think your play was retarded. Don't take offense to that. I make fun of myself for making retarded plays all the time. We all have room to improve, and I think you could improve here on this hand. Here's why:
Your read on me was that I did not have an ace. So, what's the point of going all-in? To get all my money in with a flush draw? I'm calling anyways getting better than 2-1 on my money. I understand that you wanted to build a stack or go broke before dinner, but honestly - that's the only good reason to shove the flop. Now, believe me, that's a perfectly fine reason at the Commerce, because that dinner break is annoying. But, assuming that you had me pegged for a flush draw, call the flop and then shove any non turn. At that point you truly protect/get value on your hand by avoing going bust when I hit the turn and forcing me to put the rest of my money in as a huge dog. Turns out that I had the most possible outs on the turn, but that's beside the point.
The point is what if you're wrong? We had only been playing together for three hours. That's about ninety hands. It's really impossible to get a solid read on an opponent that you've never played with after ninety hands. You felt that I did not have an ace because you had seen me check-raise two ace high flops. You forgot however about the two ace high flops that I lead right out. Both those times I had aces, and both the times I check-raised I did not have an ace. Furthermore, this doesn't mean that I always check-raise as a bluff and always lead with my aces, the point is that against a thinking opponent you cannot make concrete assumptions like this. I'm leading that flop with anything from a flush draw to TT. I obviously don't have AA, and most likely don't have TT, but I might. With a flop of that texture, plenty of gutshot draws, a flush draw, an ace... I will never give a free card, even if I have AA. It's still a good semi-bluffing board because people cannot call big bets for gutshots, but it's a critical mistake to give a free card in that spot.
So, anyways. If I call your all-in re-raise, I have a big flush draw or a 12 outer like I had at worst, if not I have you crushed. If I have a big flush draw, I STILL have a 12 outer against you, cause my overcard beats your T, unless I have precisely the K ! Really wanna flip for your stack at best, or be way behind at worst? Lastly, you know that you're behind the short stack. He has to have an ace. If you call the short stack and I have a hand that I was just taking a stab with, say a T or a 5, I'm folding for the extra 550 anyways!
In conclusion, this was a retarded play in my opinion. I worded this response in the second person because I wanted to chat with you about this specific topic today, but never found you. For everybody else, look at this as what you should be thinking about during that time it's your turn. Don't be making bets and raises just because it feels like you're doing something more or better. Think about the reasoning. Ask yourself why . Ask yourself what the most profitable play in the situation is. And then make it! Sometimes it will work, sometimes it won't, but if it's the most profitable play, in the long run you'll come out ahead.
Okie dokie... over and out.
Peace and good luck,
Devo
posted by Devo @ 6:46 AM
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